Jobs, Layoffs, and AI Disruption: U.S. Labor Market Pulse – June 2025

7.391M

In April 2025, U.S. job openings increased by 191,000 to 7.391 million, indicating a rebound after a sharp decline in March. Hiring also rose by 169,000 to 5.573 million. However, layoffs increased significantly by 196,000 to 1.786 million, suggesting potential softening in the labor market amid economic uncertainty, particularly due to inconsistent tariff policies.

50%

The rise of generative AI is posing a significant threat to entry-level white-collar jobs. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, predicts that AI could eliminate up to 50% of these roles, potentially driving unemployment to 20% within five years. This trend is already evident, with a sharp decline in programming jobs since the debut of ChatGPT in 2022.

5,200

In 2025, the U.S. government initiated mass layoffs across various federal agencies. Notably, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) terminated approximately 5,200 probationary employees, including 1,300 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) also laid off about 6,000 to 7,000 probationary employees, raising concerns about potential delays in tax return processing and reduced customer service.

4.2%

As of April 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate remained near historic lows at 4.2%, despite economic turbulence caused by President Trump's tariff policies. Job openings rose unexpectedly to 7.39 million, signaling a resilient labor market. However, economists warn that the labor market's strength may be fragile, particularly affecting new graduates and older job seekers.

4.4%

The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised its unemployment rate projection for 2025 to 4.4%, up from previous estimates. This adjustment reflects concerns over economic growth and the impact of recent tariff policies. The Fed also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% from 2.1%.